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What We're Reading ~ Analytical Links 10/8/14

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On avoiding value traps [Young Money]

Longs and investing from a short seller's perspective [LongShortTrader]

On buybacks: they are big and they are back [Aswath Damodaran]

A look at Adidas [Value & Opportunity]

An interview with Jack Schwager [Bloomberg View]

The world's greatest stockpicker? [Washington Post]

Wealth without workers, workers without wealth [Economist]

On Bond King Bill Gross' next act [Barrons]

How Visa is fighting back as transactions go digital [Bloomberg]

HP announces breakup plan [NYTimes]

Shorting GoPro is one pricey bet [WSJ]

Inside the Koch Brothers' empire [Rolling Stone]

50% Discount to Next Week's Family Office Capital Raising Workshop in NYC

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On Friday October 17th at the Harvard Club of New York, fund managers, investor relations  professionals, and business executives will gather for a full-day intensive workshop on raising capital from family offices and HNW investors. http://WilsonConferences.com/Family-Capital

Richard C. Wilson, author of The Family Office Book (Wiley) and founder of the Family Offices   Group, will lead a day of live training that will teach you how to attract family offices and HNW investors, expand your capital base to single and multi-family offices, and educate you on the in’s and out’s of this growing investor group. Be sure and reserve your seat for the Alternative Investment Networking Breakfast taking place at the Harvard Club on October 16th, too.

Market Folly as a media partner for this event has enabled the first 10 professionals who register a 50% discount, so you can attend this catered, full-day capital raising seminar for $295. This offer is only for the first 10 readers who use this code "300" on the registration form: http://WilsonConferences.com/Family-Capital

Past Attendees of our Capital Raising and Networking Breakfasts include: BNP Paribas, Jefferies, Bloomberg, PWC, the Rohatyn Group, Credit Suisse, JPMorgan, First Republic, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, Invesco, and leading family offices, private equity firms, and hedge funds.

Workshop Chairman: Richard C. Wilson has raised over $200 million, he is founder of the #1 largest family office association in the world, and is CEO of Wilson Holding Company and Billionaire Family Office. Richard is one of the best-known capital raising authorities in the world with over 20 million views of his articles, videos, white papers, webinars, and books, and a weekly email reach of over 1 million professionals, he has developed the Wilson brand into a household name over the past 8 years. Richard has written extensively on capital raising and marketing (including two bestselling books), he has trained over 10,000 investment professionals through his speeches, workshops, and training programs, and he works every day with ultra-wealthy investors, family offices, and $1B+ families.

Conference Details: http://WilsonConferences.com/Family-Capital

Where: Harvard Club of New York

Limited Seating: Due to fully catered breakfast and lunch at the event seating is strictly limited, please reserve your seat now if you would like to attend.

When: October 17, 2014

Why: In order to successfully raise capital from family offices, you need to understand these investors, how they make allocation decisions, and what they are seeking in an investment partner. This is the perfect workshop for anyone looking to partner with family offices and improve your institutional capital raising strategies. Download the brochure: http://WilsonConferences.com/Capital-Raising-Workshop-Series.pdf

Register: To reserve your seat before they run out please call Yvette or Doug at (212) 729-5067  or complete the 1 minute registration form here: http://WilsonConferences.com/Family-Capital and don’t forget to use code 300 to save $300 off your registration.

Like all of our events we 100% guarantee that you will love the workshop and get far more than your money's worth of value from it or we will refund you instantly upon request.

Richard C. Wilson
(212) 729-5067
Wilson Conferences
Family Offices Group Association
3300 NW 185th Avenue Suite #108
Portland, Oregon 97229
Team@WilsonConferences.com
http://WilsonConferences.com/Super

What We're Reading ~ Hedge Fund Links 10/10/14

Eminence Capital Increases TIBCO Software Position

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Ricky Sandler's hedge fund firm Eminence Capital has filed a 13G with the SEC regarding their stake in TIBCO Software (TIBX).  Per the filing, Eminence now owns 5.4% of the company with over 8.81 million shares.

This means they've increased their position size by over 3.52 million shares since the end of the second quarter.  The filing was required due to portfolio activity on September 29th.

We've posted up additional recent portfolio activity from Eminence here.

Per Google Finance, TIBCO Software is "a provider of middleware and infrastructure software. The Company’s standards-based software platform enables customers to create flexible, event-driven applications from infrastructure and deliver real-time, actionable insights. It offers a range of software products. It's products are licensed by companies all over the globe in diverse industries, such as financial services, telecommunications, energy, retail, life sciences, manufacturing, transportation, government, insurance, and business services sectors. The Company’s software is capable of correlating, in real-time, information about an organization’s operations and performance with information about expected behavior and business rules."

Baupost Group Boosts Keryx Biopharmaceuticals Stake

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Seth Klarman's investment firm Baupost Group has filed an amended 13G regarding their position in Keryx Biopharmaceuticals (KERX).  Per the filing, Baupost now owns 19.93% of the company with 18.3 million shares.

They've boosted their position size by over 7.76 million shares since the end of the second quarter.  The filing was required due to portfolio activity on September 30th.

You can view other portfolio activity from Baupost here.

Per Google Finance, Keryx Biopharmaceuticals "is focused on the acquisition, development, and commercialization of pharmaceutical products for the treatment of renal disease. The Company is developing KRX-0502, an investigational, ferric citrate, oral compound that binds to phosphate. Under the name Zerenex, KRX-0502 has completed a United States-based Phase III clinical program for the treatment of hyperphosphatemia in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) on dialysis."

ValueAct Buys More Allison Transmission

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Earlier this week, we highlighted that Jeff Ubben's hedge fund firm ValueAct Capital was out buying some Allison Transmission (ALSN).  With the recent market weakness, that trend continued over the past few days.

Per a Form 4 filed with the SEC, ValueAct Capital has disclosed they've purchased 275,000 additional shares of ALSN at prices ranging from $27.64 to $27.86 on October 7th, 8th, 9th.  After these buys, they now own 18.85 million ALSN shares.

ALSN was just featured in the equity analysis section of our Hedge Fund Wisdom newsletter recently.  Sign up here to immediately catch up on the name and the investment thesis.

Einhorn's Greenlight Capital Files 13D on Civeo

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David Einhorn's hedge fund firm Greenlight Capital has filed a 13D on shares of Civeo (CVEO).  Per the filing, they now own 9.99% of the company with over 10.65 million shares.

This means they've boosted their holdings by over 4.5 million shares since the end of the second quarter.  The filing was made due to activity on September 30th but they've continued to buy into October.  They've purchased shares in the $12.37 range recently.

Greenlight originally received shares of CVEO in the spin-off from Oil States International (OIS), which they also own.

Einhorn's 13D indicates that they've had conversations with the board and made the following suggestions: the company should take on leverage to make its capital structure more appropriate for a real estate company, the company should aggressively return capital to shareholders via dividends, and the company should replace its CEO.

For more from this hedge fund, check out Einhorn's recent comments at the Great Investors' Best Ideas conference this week.

Family Office Book for Free

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The Family Offices Group has released a 35-page PDF book on single and multi-family offices which includes 2 free chapters of The Family Office Book: Investing Capital for the Ultra-Affluent (Wiley).

To download this free book, simply visit: http://FamilyOffices.com/Family-Office-Book

You may know our brand from our operation of the #1 most visited family office website, http://FamilyOffices.com or from hearing about us hosting a 3-day Family Office Super Summit on November 11-13 in Miami, featuring more than 50 family office speakers.  To learn more visit: http://WilsonConferences.com/Super

Hope you enjoy the book and hopefully we can meet in person at our Family Office Super Summit in Miami,

Richard C. Wilson
CEO & Founder
Family Offices Group
Phone: (212) 729-5067
E-Mail: Clients@FamilyOffices.com
http://FamilyOffices.com
http://WilsonConferences.com/Super

What We're Reading ~ Analytical Links 10/15/14

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Berkshire Beyond Buffett: The Enduring Value of Values [Lawrence Cunningham]

On spectrum value and a case for Verizon [Bronte Capital]

Importance of ROIC: A glance at the last 42 years of Wells Fargo [Base Hit Investing]

Building the perfect investor [Millennial Invest]

A look at the potential future for the cable industry [GlennChan]

Pay TV's new worry: 'shaving' the cord [WSJ]

Six figure incomes - and facing financial ruin [WSJ]

T-Mobile's stock slump offers buying opportunity [Yahoo]

On how Buffett's portfolio managers are faring [Fortune]

Why millennials are shunning cars [Washington Post]

The freelance economy and word of mouth [HBR]

Eminence Capital Discloses FNFV Group Stake

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Per a 13G filed with the SEC, Ricky Sandler's hedge fund firm Eminence Capital has revealed a new position in FNFV Group (FNFV).  They now own 6.1% of shares via their 5.55 million share position.  The filing was made due to activity on September 30th.

FNFV was spun-off from Fidelity National Financial (FNF) this summer.  Each 'old' share of FNF was converted into a new share of FNF and 0.3333 of a share of the newly created FNFV.  The latter is a tracking stock, and that's what Eminence has now reported a stake in.

We've also posted other recent portfolio activity from Eminence here.

Per Yahoo Finance, FNFV stands for Fidelity National Financial Ventures and it operates as the investment arm of Fidelity National Financial. 

Balyasny Asset Management Boosts Churchill Downs Position

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Dmitry Balyasny's firm Balyasny Asset Management has filed a 13G with the SEC regarding their stake in Churchill Downs (CHDN).  Per the filing, Balyasny now owns 5.24% of the company with 909,724 shares.

This marks an increase of 285,477 shares in their position size since the end of the second quarter.  The filing was required due to activity on October 7th.

Per Google Finance, Churchill Downs is "a diversified provider of pari-mutuel horseracing, casino gaming, entertainment, and is the country’s premier source of online account wagering on horseracing events. The Company offers gaming products through its casino in Mississippi, its slot and video poker operations in Louisiana and its slot and poker operations in Florida."

ValueAct Again Buys Allison Transmission Shares

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Jeff Ubben's activist firm ValueAct Capital has filed yet another Form 4 with the SEC regarding their stake in Allison Transmission (ALSN).  Per the filing, ValueAct has purchased an additional 200,000 ALSN shares.

They were buying on October 10th at around $27.62 and October 13th around $27.09.  In total, their position size is now over 19.05 million shares.

As we've highlighted previously, the most recent issue of our Hedge Fund Wisdom newsletter analyzed ALSN if you want to read up on the bull/bear thesis.

JANA Partners Adds to Walgreen Stake

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Barry Rosenstein's activist hedge fund JANA Partners has filed a Form 4 with the SEC regarding their stake in Walgreen (WAG).  Per the filing, JANA now owns 13.75 million shares of WAG.

They were out buying on October 10th, 13th, and 14th at prices of $62.80, $62.02, and $60.68.  They purchased 1.25 million shares in total recently.  Rosenstein is also on WAG's board of directors.

Shares of WAG were hit in August after the company announced they'd be completing the Alliance Boots merger but would not be doing a tax inversion, something many investors were hoping for.

You can view additional recent portfolio activity from JANA here.


Larry Robbins: Doesn't Believe This is a Change in Tone in the Market

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Glenview Capital's Larry Robbins sat down for an interview with CNBC recently and here's what he had to say:

They're looking at what's happening to the economy and to liquidity.  They don't think there's a systemic issue out there.

He says, "Our own checks with companies indicate that the economy is doing reasonably well in the US, clearly some challenges overseas.  We don't believe that this a change in tone in the market that's likely to be here to stay.  We believe that this is a transitory risk problem."

Robbins also pointed to all the good news coming the US consumer's way recently: wages up, price of oil down.

Glenview took down exposure in the second week of September (net exposure) due to the laundry list of risk items.  They've started to re-risk about halfway to where they were before, as buying opportunities have presented themselves recently.   He argued that certain stock movements have outdone their fundamentals.

He specifically pointed out the rental car industry as being annihilated recently and called it a rational oligopoly as 3 players control 95% market share.  He said the Hertz (HTZ) CEO change has happened and likes Avis Budget's (CAR) opportunity ahead.  Robbins also said the travel industry has been impacted by the ebola scare, but didn't name any companies specifically.


Embedded below are the videos of Robbins' CNBC interview:

Video 1


Video 2


You can view some of Glenview's portfolio activity here.

Viking Global Updates Wayfair Stake

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Andreas Halvorsen's hedge fund firm Viking Global has filed a 13G with the SEC regarding Wayfair (W).  Per the filing, Viking now owns 12.6% of the company with 1,750,236 shares.

It should be noted that Viking also filed a Form 3 regarding Wayfair indicating that they previously owned Class B shares and they were converted into Class A common stock.

Viking acquired 400,000 shares at $29 per share in connection with the company's IPO on October 2nd.  Additionally, they acquired 25,000 shares at $36 and 54,250 shares at $35.53 in open market transactions.

You can view other portfolio activity from Viking Global here.

Per Google Finance, Wayfair is "transforming the way people shop for their homes. The Company has created online destinations for the home. Through its e-commerce business model, the Company offers visually inspiring browsing, compelling merchandising, easy product discovery and prices for over seven million products from over 7,000 suppliers across five brands: Wayfair.com, Joss & Main, AllModern, DwellStudio and Birch Lane. The Company’s technology and data focus facilitates critical e-commerce capabilities, such as shopping experiences across its five brands, consumer targeting and personalization, and anytime, anywhere shopping across its Websites, mobile-optimized Websites and mobile applications.The Company offers consumers a one-stop shop with home goods pricing designed to be on par with big box retailers and a merchandising experience designed to be on par with specialty retailers."

JANA Partners Exits QEP Resources

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Last month, we drew attention to the fact that hedge fund JANA Partners had reduced its QEP Resources stake.  With a newly filed 13D, Barry Rosenstein's activist firm has disclosed that they no longer own a stake in the company.

The filing was made due to activity on October 13th.  Previously, JANA had owned over 12.96 million shares. 

Per their latest 13D filing, JANA sold over 2.3 million shares at $22.50 on October 14th, and really ramped up liquidation of the rest of their stake on October 15th at prices ranging from $20.68 to $21.22.

For more on this hedge fund, just yesterday we highlighted some recent buying activity from JANA in another stock.

Per Google Finance, QEP Resources "operates in three lines of business: gas and oil exploration and production, midstream field services, and energy marketing. It conducted through three principal subsidiaries: QEP Energy Company (QEP Energy) acquires, explores for, develops and produces natural gas, oil, and natural gas liquids (NGL); QEP Field Services Company (QEP Field Services) provides midstream field services, including natural gas gathering, processing, compression and treating services for affiliates and third parties; andQEP Marketing Company (QEP Marketing) markets affiliate and third-party natural gas and oil, provides risk-management services, and owns and operates an underground gas-storage reservoir."

JANA Partners Ramps Up Hertz Stake, Files 13D

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Barry Rosenstein's hedge fund firm JANA Partners has filed a 13D with the SEC regarding their stake in Hertz Global Holdings (HTZ).  Per the filing, JANA now owns 7% of HTZ with over 32 million shares (including options to purchase 11.37 million shares).

They've increased their position size by over 26.1 million shares since the end of the second quarter.  The filing was required due to portfolio activity on October 10th and notes that while they were our purchasing shares in mid-October around $21.67, they also acquired a lot of shares upon the exercise of options.

JANA's 13D indicates JANA has had (and may continue to have) discussions with the board of directors regarding management succession and board composition.

They're not the only hedge fund who has been intrigued by shares of HTZ as they've fallen.  Last week we pointed out that Glenview Capital's Larry Robbins was positive on car rental companies (specifically HTZ and Avis Car Budget (CAR)).

Hertz has been somewhat of a hedge fund hotel and and lot of investors have come and gone.  As a result, shares have been more volatile.  Clearly, JANA has seen this volatility as opportunity.

JANA has been actively trading recently and we highlighted how they exited their QEP Resources stake and added to their Walgreen position.

Per Google Finance, Hertz is "its operating company and a direct wholly owned subsidiary of Hertz Investors, Inc., which is wholly owned by Hertz Holdings. Its business operates in two segments: rental and leasing of cars, crossovers and light trucks (car rental), and rental of industrial, construction and material handling equipment (equipment rental). In its equipment rental business segment, it rents equipment through approximately 340 branches in the United States, Canada, France, Spain, Italy, China and Saudi Arabia, as well as through its international licensees."

Bridger Capital Increases Position in The Medicines Company

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Roberto Mignone's hedge fund firm Bridger Capital has filed a 13G with the SEC regarding their stake in The Medicines Company (MDCO).  Per the filing, Bridger now owns 5.1% of MDCO with over 3.3 million shares.

This means they've boosted their stake by over 1.44 million shares since the end of the second quarter.  The filing was made due to activity on October 8th.

You can view additional portfolio activity from Bridger here.

Per Google Finance, Medicines Co is "a pharmaceutical company focused on the treatment of critical care patients through the delivery of medicines to the global hospital marketplace. The Company has three marketed products: Angiomax(bivalirudin), Cleviprex (clevidipine butyrate) injectable emulsion and its ready-to-use formulation of Argatroban. It also has a pipeline of acute and intensive care hospital products in development, including three late-stage development product candidates, cangrelor, oritavancin and MDCO-157, and two early stage development product candidates, MDCO-2010 and MDCO-216. All of its acute care generic products are injectable products."

The New House of Money: Jim Chanos' Interview With Steven Drobny

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Steven Drobny has released a chapter from his new book, The New House of Money. Chapter 2, The Biggest Short, features an interview with short seller Jim Chanos of hedge fund Kynikos Associates.

Embedded below is the chapter from The New House of Money:



You can find out more about the book here.

Huge Discount to the 3-Day Family Office Super Summit in Miami for Our Readers

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MarketFolly has secured 7 tickets at a heavily discounted price to next month's Family Office Super Summit in Miami on November 11-13, 2014.  This 3-day conference features 40+ family office executives presenting on topics such as fund manager selection, building a direct investment program, and asset allocation models.  This is a rare opportunity to hear from the CIOs that manage capital for the world's wealthiest families, all while networking in beautiful Miami, Florida.

Since Market Folly is a media sponsor, we have negotiated 7 tickets at a huge discount of $1,200 off your admission. That means the first 7 professionals who register can attend all 3 days for just $797 instead of the normal price of $1,997 simply by entering the promo code "folly" on the reservation form: http://WilsonConferences.com/Super  Due to the size of this discount please do not share this coupon code with non MarketFolly subscribers and access the code will be cut off as soon as 7 professionals have registered by using this discount.


Family Office Super Summit Speakers List

• Michael Connor, Consolidated Investment Group 
• Matthew McCarthy, Nottingham & Spirk 
• Jonathan Bergman, TAG Associates 
• Elliot Dornbusch, CV Advisors 
• Al Bhatt, Coral Gables Trust 
• Paul Vogel, Argos Partners 
• Richard Joynt, Bedell Family Office 
• John Jonson, Lyrical Partners 
• Christian Zabbal, Black Coral Capital 
• David Rosen, Pritzker Group 
• David Fisher, Bentley Capital 
• Gary Domoracki, Ten Mountain Capital 
• Jimmy Hickey, RiverRock Capital 
• Candice Beaumont, L Investments 
• Ronald Macleod, Baciu Family Capital 
• Timothy Smith, Petro Lucrum 
• Mauricio Gruener, GFG Capital 
• Mark Renz, Barclay Breland Family Office 
• Cliff Oberlin, Oberlin Wealth Partners 
• Roman Khlupin, W Family Office 
• Declan Ramsaran, Redwood Wealth Canada 
• William Kidd, KIDD & Company 
• Camilo Nino, AKRO Group 
• James Cassel, Cassel Salpeter & Co. 
• Blakely Page, Spouting Rock Capital 
• Ira Perlmuter, T5 Equity Partners  
• Jorge Carstensen, Helvetica 1890 
• Santiago Ulloa, WE Family Office 
• Abe Tatar, The Hysek Group 
• Michael Weinberg, MOW & AYW 
• Stuart Dunn, Holdun Investment Partners 
• Christian Jagodzinski, Desdemona Capital 
• Gregory Spick, UPS Investments 
• Anthony Ritossa, Ritossa Olive Oil & Family Office 
• Richard Stone, Stone Family Office 
• Scott Freund, Family Office Research 
• Henley Smith, Commonwealth Asset Management 
• Paul de Sousa, BMG, Inc. 
• Rodolfo Paiz, The Guayacan Group 
• Christina Dikareva, Single Family Office (Private) 
• Logan Powell, Copper Beech Capital 
• Daniel Shakhani, RDS Capital 
• Sergio Pedro, Private Family Office 
• Greg Curtis, Greycourt & Co. 
• Andrew Mehalko, AM Global Family Investment Office 
• Harris Fried, Fried Family Office 
• Peter Marquardt, The Leo Group 
• Leah Zveglich, Aster Family Advisors 
• Richard C. Wilson, Billionaire Family Office 
• Jesse Shemesh, Kite & Key Realty Group 
• Thomas Handler, Handler Thayer

Conference Details: http://WilsonConferences.com/Super

Where: JW Marriott of Miami in Brickell ($200 discounted rooms available)

When: November 11-13, 2014

Why: Learn from top family office investors, form new family office relationships, and access three days of family office insights covering a range of institutional investing topics.


Limited Time Discount For Market Folly Readers

Since Market Folly is a media sponsor, we have tickets with a $1,200 discount to this 3-day conference available for the first 7 professionals who register using the promo code "Folly" on this form: http://WilsonConferences.com/Super or call us if you have questions or trouble registering at (212) 729-5067.

Like all of our events we 100% guarantee that you will love the conference and get far more than your money's worth of value from it or we will refund you instantly upon request.

See you in Miami.

Richard C. Wilson
(212) 729-5067
Wilson Conferences
Family Offices Group Association
3300 NW 185h Avenue Suite #108
Portland, Oregon 97229
Team@WilsonConferences.com
http://WilsonConferences.com/Super

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